2018 NFL Mock Draft

Hello and welcome to the fourth annual “Kiper Jr. vs Wind” NFL mock draft showdown. In the 2015 & 2016 NFL draft I accurately predicted more correct first round draft picks than one of the most popular ESPN- NFL draft analysts in the world- Mel Kiper Jr. In 2017, Kiper took back the title by two picks. The way the scoring works is if you pick the correct player in the exact draft spot it’s worth .5 points- if you pick the correct team he goes to it’s an additional .5 points (generally these two go hand in hand but draft day trades do happen) so you can get a total of 1 point per draft slot (max of 32 points). While Kiper Jr. likes to play hard to get, as he hasn’t responded to a single email from me regarding this intense competition over the last three years- I know he’s closely monitoring my mock draft and anxiously awaiting the 2018 publication. Year 4 should have a decisive winner as our picks are very far off from each other. This is the first year we even disagree on the first overall pick of the draft. Let’s get down to business:

1. Cleveland Browns Record: 0-16 Top needs: QB, CB, OT, S, WR
   Pick: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
   The Browns haven’t had a winning season since 2007 and have been the laughing stock of the NFL for the last decade. Last season they became only the second team since the merger to finish 0-16. However, they seem serious about turning things around after a strong offseason that included the signings of Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Carlos Hyde & Damarious Randall among others.
   Heading into the draft, this organization has an incredible opportunity to keep the momentum moving in the right direction as they hold two top-4 picks. Even though they brought in Tyrod Taylor as a potential short-term fix- the quarterback position absolutely needs to be addressed for the future. In the past 10 years, they’ve drafted 3 quarterbacks (Quinn, Weeden & Manziel)  in the first round which is more than any other team.
   This year, they make it 4 quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 11 years by selecting Sam Danrold. It didn’t take very long for Kiper and I to disagree as he has QB Josh Allen going first overall here. Some mock drafts have Darnold slipping all the way down to #12 which is ridiculous and absolutely will not happen. The league has shifted to a passing league and it’s more important than ever to secure a franchise quarterback. Insert Sam Darnold.
   He has tremendous upside and he’s NFL ready. He has the build and toughness that a team look for in their franchise QB. He’s not afraid to make any throws and has a unique ability to look off safeties with the best of them. His mechanics are an eyesore for sure, but he has the velocity to mitigate the additional release time. The coaches will want to tweak the mechanics to create a quicker release time but that’s nothing that hasn’t been done before with other top prospects. While Darnold has the mental toughness and talent to start tomorrow, early sideline seasoning could help him better process coverages in an attempt to eliminate future interceptions. Darnold has the tools to thrive in any system and doesn't have to have perfect protection to succeed as he has a knack for improvising. His floor is solid starter, but he has the ceiling to be one of the top tier quarterbacks in the game as he gains more experience.
2. New York Giants Record: 3-13 Top needs: QB, OL, RB, EDGE, WR 
   Pick: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn St.
   The Giants could very possibly select a quarterback with the 2^nd pick in the draft as Eli Manning certainly isn’t getting any younger at age 37. In fact, every mock draft I’ve seen has the Giants selecting either Allen or Darnold with the #2 pick. However, what’s not being talked about is that new Giants GM Dave Gettleman drafted Trent Richardson for Cleveland in 2012. Last season, he selected Christian McCaffrey with the eighth overall pick for the Panthers and now he has a chance to get an even shinier, upgraded toy at this position. Saquon Barkley is without question the most talented player in the draft and it's not even close. He’s an every-down running back with the ability to alter the course of an offense and become the face of any franchise. Barkley has the rare ability to create additional yardage through elusiveness, speed, vision and ability to get to the open space. In an era where receiving running backs are utilized with such great frequency- Barkley is a star and has a phenomenal NFL career ahead of him. If the Giants want to extend Eli’s career (he’s a great pass protector) they select Barkley who immediately steps in and lightens the workload for Manning.
3. New York Jets (via Colts) Record: 5-11 Top needs: QB, EDGE, OG, OT, WR
   Pick: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
   The Jets traded three draft picks to move up from #6 to #3 in this draft and they knew exactly who they wanted and that’s Mayfield. Many experts have Josh Allen off the board in the top three picks. Other experts have Rosen landing here as it will be a difficult for GM Mike Maccagnan to pass on him given how well-aligned the draft's most pro-ready quarterback appears to be with OC Jeremy Bates' philosophy. However, Mayfield generates a unique spark for an offense in need of someone who can create on the fly. Mayfield plays with a fiery demeanor and is uber competitive. He’s a tough, smart quarterback that will have great success at the next level. There are many reports that Mayfield has already been introduced to the team’s ownership and that there is a definite mutual interest between the two sides. A lot of scouts like to rip on Mayfield for his size- but it's important to remember that they did the same thing with Drew Brees and I'd say he made it work. Will Broadway Baker be a phenomenon in NY? 
4. Cleveland Browns (via Texans) Record 0-16 Top needs: QB, CB, OT, S, WR 
   Pick: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
   Cleveland already acquired (they sure hope) their franchise QB. With Barkley off the board there will be a lot of hype around the Browns trading this pick to acquire additional picks later in the draft and it could very well happen. However, Cleveland has the opportunity to turn their attention to the defensive side of the football and they decide to do just that adding the dynamic edge rusher Chubb. Myles Garrett and Bradley Chubb rushing the QB!? The thought of that is simply too much to resist and the Browns pass on a ‘need’ for more of a ‘want’ by selecting the next most talented player in the draft. When the dust settles and we're looking back on this draft in a few years they are going to regret passing on Barkley.
5. Denver Broncos Record: 5-11 Top needs: CB, EDGE, OL, TE, WR
   Pick: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
   Kiper Jr’s #1 overall pick slides to #5 and goes to Denver. The Broncos just signed Keenum to a 2 year deal and that tells me two things: 1) They’re willing to move on from Paxton Lynch, and 2) They’re not sold on Keenum as a long-term option either. size and arm talent are prototypical for early first-round picks, but it's rare to find a quarterback with such a low college completion rate projected for such an early draft pick. Allen didn’t finish over 56% completion percentage in either season as a starter which, simply put, is not very good. Allen can make some truly special throws, but they seem to happen too infrequently. Whether or not he can improve the mental part of his game will determine whether he's a good NFL starter or just another big, strong-armed guy (aka Blake Bortles). I’m predicting Allen is a bust at the NFL level.
6. Buffalo Bills (via Colts) **Mock Trade** Record: 9-7 Top needs: QB, OL, WR, S, LB
   Pick: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
   The Colts badly wanted Bradley Chubb or Saquon Barkley to slip to #6- if that were the case this would be a guaranteed pick here. The Colts have many holes on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball decide to trade their #6 overall pick to the Bills for picks #12 & #22 in this year’s draft. The Bills recently signed AJ McCarron to a 2 year-$10 mill deal but they know they know they absolutely cannot leave the first round without a quarterback. Josh Rosen's footwork and mechanics make him as pretty a quarterback as you will find in this year's draft. The biggest concern with him is that his on-field success requires many elements to stay on schedule. He lacks plus arm strength, so identifying coverage (pre- and post-snap) and throwing with anticipation takes on added importance. Rosen has pocket poise, accuracy and intelligence to become a good NFL starter, but he needs to be willing to take what defenses give him more frequently rather than forcing bad throws. Rosen will need to quiet the concerns surrounding leadership and coachability early on in order to establish a strong first impression and get his career off on the right foot.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Record: 5-11 Top needs: RB, CB, DL, S, OL 
   Pick: Derwin James, S, Florida State
   In 2017, Tampa Bay finished as the worst ranked defense in yards and their secondary got shredded on a regular basis. James is the top safety in the draft and will step in and make an immediate impact. Whether in coverage, run support or on a blitz, James makes plays and brings much-needed leadership with his confident demeanor. This pick just makes perfect sense for Tampa. There's a lot of rumors that Minkah Fitzpatrick gets drafted here but James fits their scheme better.
8. Chicago Bears – Record: 5-11 Top needs: CB, OL, EDGE, DL, ILB 
   Pick: Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
   The Bears could go a couple of different directions with this pick as they have a few holes of their own that needs to be addressed. I see them shoring up that shaky offensive line to help protect last year's first round draft pick (second overall) Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky showed promise last year and Chicago also went out and got a new weapon for him in Allen Robinson (and Burton, kind of). Nelson being drafted by Chicago also makes a lot of sense, as his former coach at Notre Dame, Harry Hiestand, joined the Bears this offseason. I am as confident in this selection as any in this entire draft.
9. San Francisco 49ers – Record: 6-10 Top needs: EDGE, OG, CB, WR, TE 
   Pick: Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS, Alabama
   The 49ers made some big moves in the off season signing Jimmy G to a record setting deal and also acquiring McKinnon to fill in for Carlos Hyde’s departure. They went out and signed Richard Sherman at CB too. While they could look at an offensive guard to help protect their $137 million investment I see them going with the next best player available in the draft which is Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick turns up the intensity level as high as it will go and gives 100% on every play. Fitzpatrick has experience as a slot cornerback, but will likely be targeted as a safety who can be deployed as a sub-package linebacker,  blitzer or play in the slot against big receivers/tight ends. Fitzpatrick has consistently shined since his freshman season on Alabama defenses that have been loaded with NFL talent. His versatility, character and desire to succeed should make him a star from day 1.
10. Oakland Raiders - Record: 6-10 Top needs: LB, CB, S, OT, DT
    Pick: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
    One of the top high school recruits in the country (top 30 overall), Smith made the decision to stay in his home state of Georgia to play football after being named the Defensive Player of the Year as a senior. He played as a reserve his true freshman season before becoming a defensive leader in 2016. Smith played in all 13 games, starting 10, and lead the Bulldogs with 95 tackles. Aside from Bruce Irvin, Oaklands LB core consists of Tahir Whitehead and Cory James. Smith has been compared to Lavonte David- a dominant defender that has been a force in their division for the past six years that they're all too familiar with. Oakland has a chance to lock up their own dominant linebacker and they pounce on the opportunity.
11. Miami Dolphins Record: 6-10 Top needs: DL, LB, QB, TE, CB 
    Pick: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
12. Indianapolis Colts (via Jets) **Trade** Record: 4-12 Top needs: EDGE, LB, OL, WR
    Pick: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio St
13. Washington Redskins Record: 7-9 Top needs: DL, LB, CB, OG, QB 
    Pick: Vita Vea, DT, Washington 
14. Green Bay Packers Record: 7-9 Top needs: CB, OT, WR, OLB, ILB
    Pick: Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA
    Davenport is a tall defensive end with long arms. Explosive in all his movements and extremely athletic. He possesses a wide variety of pass-rushing moves and can win with speed and explode around the corner. Davenport has packed on 30 pounds in the last two seasons and has the frame to continue getting even bigger and stronger. He was a three-sport star athlete in High School in football, basketball and was also a sprinter. His NFL comparison is Danielle Hunter from the Vikings which has to get Green Bay fans excited. They could Draft Ridley to give Rodgers another weapon with Jordy's departure but they have bigger needs since they still have Adams, Cobb and Graham. The NFC North possesses quarterbacks such as Cousins, Stafford and even Trubisky who showed promise last year. Landing a big time play-making defender to get after these quarterbacks is top priority as Rodgers has proven he can make do with any WR core.
15. Arizona Cardinals Record: 8-8 Top needs: QB, OL, WR, CB, S
    Pick: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
16. Baltimore Ravens Record: 9-7 Top needs: WR, TE, ILB, OL, QB 
    Pick: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
17. Los Angeles Chargers Record: 9-7 Top needs: OT, ILB, DL, QB, S
    Pick: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
18. Seattle Seahawks Record: 9-7 Top needs: OL, CB, DL, TE, S 
    Pick: Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP
19. Dallas Cowboys Record: 9-7 Top needs: WR, DT, LB, OG, TE
    Pick: Courtland Sutton, WR, Southern Methodist
20. Detroit Lions Record: 9-7 Top needs: DE, TE, RB, OG, LB 
    Pick: Harold Landry, DE, Boston College
21. Cincinnati Bengals (via Bills) Record: 7-9 Top needs: OL, LB, CB, DT, QB 
    Pick: James Daniels, C, Iowa
22. Indianapolis Colts (via Jets) Record: 4-12 Top needs: EDGE, LB, OL, WR, DT 
    Pick: Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
    
23. New England Patriots (via Rams) Record: 13-3 Top needs: CB, LB, QB, OL, S 
    Pick: Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama
24. Carolina Panthers Record: 11-5 Top needs: WR, CB, DE, OL, S
    Pick: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland
25. Tennessee Titans Record: 9-7 Top needs: EDGE, ILB, WR, DL, OG
    Pick: Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
26. Atlanta Falcons Record: 10-6 Top needs: DT, WR, TE, DE, FB
    Pick: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
27. New Orleans Saints Record: 11-5 Top needs: TE, WR, OL, QB, EDGE
    Pick: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina  
28. Pittsburgh Steelers Record: 13-3 Top needs: ILB, WR, S, RB, OLB
    Pick: Justin Reid, S, Stanford
29. Jacksonville Jaguars  Record: 10-6 Top needs: OT, LB, WR, QB, CB
    Pick: Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa
30. Minnesota Vikings Record: 13-3 Top needs: OL, CB, S, WR, TE 
    Pick: Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia
    The Vikings need to improve their O-Line. Especially after guaranteeing Kirk Cousins $84 million they absolutely need to keep him upright. Left guard Nick Easton will be coming off a fractured ankle suffered in Week 16. Right guard Joe Berger has retired. The Vikings did make a couple depth moves in free agency by signing Josh Andrews from the Eagles and Tom Compton from the Bears, but the need to invest more in the offensive line is obvious. Wynn is a talented, technically sound and extremely competitive.  He brings an edge to the position that coaches love. He appears to have the technique to overcome any concerns about size and could become a dominant start for years to come. The biggest concern is that he may be off the board by this pick- if he's still available though the Vikings will jump all over him. I originally had The Vikes selecting Billy Price since he has a close relationship with Pat Elflein from their playing days at Ohio St- however, a torn pec has likely dropped Price into the second round. 
31. New England Patriots Record: 13-3 Top needs: CB, LB, QB, OL, S
    Pick: Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
32. Philadelphia Eagles Record: 13-3 Top needs: LB, TE, RB, WR, OL
    Pick: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU