This year will mark my fifth attempt at putting together a
perfect first round of the NFL Draft. It also just so happens to be the most
important one of my career.. why you might ask? Because it’s a best of 5 series
and Mel Kiper & I are currently tied 2-2 with our predictions. This one’s
for all the marbles. Kiper doesn’t know we’re competing but I’m going to tweet
this/ tag him on Facebook and maybe he’ll take a look. Either way, we are. Can
an avid sports fan out of St. Cloud, Minnesota really beat an ESPN expert at
his own gig three out of five? Let’s find out.
Before I get started I want to say a few things about this
year’s upcoming draft. First off, it’s a very difficult one to predict. There
are a lot of good players- but few I’d consider “great” which means teams could
go in a variety of different ways. In NFL drafts, teams have three decisions to
make.
1) Pick
the best available player regardless of position
2) Pick
the top available player at your biggest position in need
3) Trade
the pick
One thing I do not do in my mock drafts is predict trades-
this is consistent with Kiper. It’d mess up our draft boards more than it would
help. We’re almost ready to get started but before we do I want to address how
Mr. Kiper and I will be facing off. I say this because there’s two different
ways a winner could be considered: 1) Most players selected in the correct
draft spot, to the correct team we predicted them or 2) Most correct players
chosen in the first round regardless of which draft pick/team we selected them
to go to. We’re going to be looking at option 1 because it’s much more
challenging. Hopefully my mock draft gives you something fun to follow along
with during the draft tomorrow night!
2016 record: 1-15
Top needs: QB, pass rusher, DB
Top needs: QB, pass rusher, DB
Myles Garrett, Texas
A&M, DE:
And with the first pick in the 2017 NFL draft- the Cleveland
Browns select Myles Garrett. He’s the best defensive player in the draft and he
fills an immediate need on the Browns defense. Garrett finished with 31 sacks,
35 QB hits, and 98 hurries on his 978 rushes at Texas A&M and he improved
against the run in all three years. There are rumors that they will jump on the
top quarterback in the draft in UNC Mitch Trubisky but can you really take a
quarterback who only started 13 games in his career with the first pick in the
draft? Cleveland also has the 12th overall pick so they can address
their quarterback needs there. The Browns can secure a potentially elite edge
rusher for years to come and they will do just that.
#2) San Francisco 49ers
2016 record: 2-14
Top needs: QB, OLB, OL
2016 record: 2-14
Top needs: QB, OLB, OL
Solomon Thomas, Stanford,
DE:
Thomas
is an explosive defender who combines his strength, quickness & stamina to
consistency disrupt backfields and irritate offensive lines play after play. He
has the hands and feet to excel in both a 4-3 or 3-4 defensive scheme. He has
all the athletic traits to become a high-impact player and possesses more than
enough skill and talent to believe he will continue to elevate his game as a
pro. Thomas has the potential to become the best defender from this draft class
and a future all-pro. Thomas has some weaknesses though and it begins in his
size. He’s 6’3” 273 lbs and that often scares away potential suitors this early
in the draft. He tries to jump the snap-count on a regular basis and it
contributed to seven offside penalties last season. Even so, his playmaking
ability is second to none in this draft and it fills a big hole in the San
Francisco defense.
#3) Chicago Bears
2016 record: 3-13
Top needs: DB, OL, TE
2016 record: 3-13
Top needs: DB, OL, TE
Jamal Adams, LSU, S:
Here is an instance of taking the best available player
rather than picking to your specific team needs as I eluded to earlier. The
bears do not necessarily need a S and they certainly have bigger needs to
address. However, Adams is too good not to take. Adams is a natural born leader
that is extremely intelligent- his teammates as LSU referred to him as the
general on defense. He leads by example with his fearless play and lack of
penalties. In fact, he didn’t record a single penalty in 2016. He hits hard and
finishes all of his tackles. He’s also a special-teams stud and the Bears have
been lacking that since the Devin Hester days. It probably doesn’t hurt that
his father was also a 1st round draft pick that went on to win a
Super Bowl with the New York Giants. He’s grown up with the game and knows what
it takes to win.
#4) Jacksonville Jaguars
2016 record: 3-13
Top needs: TE, DT, OL
2016 record: 3-13
Top needs: TE, DT, OL
Leonard Fournette,
LSU, RB
The guy is an absolute beast. He is the best player in the
2017 draft and would’ve been the first overall pick if he didn’t have injury
concerns. The NFL player comparisons that experts are giving him are Adrian
Peterson & Bo Jackson.. that’s about as high of praise as there gets.
Fournette was the #1 recruit and USA Today National High School Player of the
year and decided to stay in his home state of Louisville and make his mark at
LSU. As a true freshman he led the SEC in all-purpose yards. In his Sophomore
year he ran for over 2,000 yards and scored 22 touchdowns. His Junior season
didn’t go according to plan as he injured his ankle and missed half of the
season- even with that being said he received second-team All-SEC honors. The
guy is a stud and will immediately give the Jaguar fans something to be excited
about.
#5)
Tennessee Titans (from Rams)
2016 record: 9-7
Top needs: CB, WR, ILB
2016 record: 9-7
Top needs: CB, WR, ILB
Marshon Lattimore,
Ohio St, CB:
I strongly believe the Titans are planning to try and trade
this pick- but if Lattimore drops to five they’re going to look his way
(something opposing quarterbacks tend to avoid). He was only targeted 35 times
all season and was credited with 14 pass deflections and 4 interceptions. He’s
proven even with his average size he has what it takes to be a lockdown
cornerback. He’s had hamstring issues throughout his career which could scare
the Titans into a different direction but he fills an immediate need and has
potential of being a pro-bowl caliber player from day one.
#6) New York Jets
2016 record: 5-11
Top needs: QB, OLB, TE
2016 record: 5-11
Top needs: QB, OLB, TE
O.J. Howard, Alabama, TE:
Howard
is an exceptionally gifted athlete- he has long arms and massive hands and has
tremendous acceleration into his routes. He’s a fast as a WR and as strong as a
defensive end. He has explosive talent but didn’t make enough explosive plays
at Bama. Some teams have questioned his desire and love for the game of
football and have accused him of taking some plays off. Others just blame the
coaches and the scheme and said he wasn’t used correctly at Alabama. Either
way, he has potential to be an elite TE in the NFL and defenses will absolutely
hate having to try and guard him. The Jets need a Quarterback and could look
Trubisky but they also need playmakers and Howard is that player.
#7) Los Angeles Chargers
2016 record: 5-11
Top needs: WR, DE, OG
2016 record: 5-11
Top needs: WR, DE, OG
Malik Hooker, Ohio St, S:
The Chargers moved to Los Angeles and they’re bringing Malik
Hooker with them. He was made for Gus
Bradley’s defense- it’s a perfect fit. Hooker has sharp instincts and he’s the
ultimate ball lurker. He’s a very aggressive Safety and that that is exactly
what Gus Bradley is looking to bring in his first year as the defensive
coordinator. The Chargers finished 27th in turnovers last season and
if they want any shot at the playoffs they’re going to have to be better on
defense.
#8) Carolina Panthers
2016 record: 6-10
Top needs: OT, DE, RB
2016 record: 6-10
Top needs: OT, DE, RB
Jonathan Allen, Alabama, DE:
I
would love to see Carolina go Christian Mccaffrey with this draft pick and they
likely will if Jonathan Allen is off the board. However, Allen slides to #8 and
Carolina can’t get to the podium quick enough. Allen won the 2016 Chuck
Bednarik and Bronco Nagurski Award which is a fancy name for the Nation’s top
defender. He can play inside or out and is quick off the edge- the guy is a
sack machine. He could very well go second in this draft but if the 49ers go
Thomas or Fournette he’ll very likely slip to #8. Allen is a steal at this
point in the draft.
#9) Cincinnati Bengals
2016 record: 6-9-1
Top needs: OL, LB,
2016 record: 6-9-1
Top needs: OL, LB,
Reuben Foster, Alabama, LB:
Foster’s
diluted drug test doesn’t seem to be much of an issue amongst NFL teams and
even if it hurt his stock- it wouldn’t be by much. Let’s not forget about
Laremy Tunsil who had a video of him leaked hours before the draft of him
smoking marijuana out of a gas mask. He went on to get drafted 13th
overall. All it takes is one team to believe his story or look past the issue
and that’ll happen inside the top 10. Cincy needs a linebacker and they’re
getting the best one in the draft. Foster is a ferocious hitter with elite
playmaking ability and he also displayed his talents in the toughest conference
in College football.
#10) Buffalo Bills
2016 record: 7-9
Top needs: DB, WR, OT
2016 record: 7-9
Top needs: DB, WR, OT
Mike Williams, Clemson, WR:
This
pick is a good ol fashion Matt Wind guarantee. It makes perfect sense. The
Buffalo Bills absolutely need a true #1 WR with height and hands. Sammy Watkins
has proven he can be elite when healthy but Watkins is more of a deep threat or
slot receiver than a true #1. Both Watkins and Williams also came out of
Clemson and played under Dabo Swinney. Swinney praises both players for their
work ethic and has talked about how deadly of a combo that will be. They come
from a similar system and with Williams standing at 6’4” 218 with reliable
hands he’d be the perfect complement to Watkins. Williams has potential to be a
combination between Burress and Boldin. Chalk this pick up already.
#11 New Orleans
Saints- Marlon Humphrey, Alabama, CB
#12 Cleveland Browns-
Mitch Trubisky, UNC, QB
#13 Arizona
Cardinals- Haason Reddick, Temple, OLB
#14 Philadelphia
Eagles- Christian McCaffrey, Standford,
#15 Indianapolis
Colts- Derek Barnette, Tennessee, DE
#16 Baltimore Ravens-
Corey Davis, Western Michigan, WR
#17 Washington
Redskins- Takkarist McKinley, UCLA, DE
#18 Tennessee Titans-
John Ross, Washington, WR
#19 Tampa Bay
Buccaneers- Dalvin Cook, FSU, RB
#20 Denver Broncos- Ryan Ramczyk, Wisconsin, OL
#21 Detroit Lions-
Jarrad Davis, Florida, LB
#22 Miami Dolphins-
Taco Charlton, Michigan, DE
#23 New York Giants- Garett Bolles, Utah, OT
#24 Oakland Raiders-
Gareon Conley, Ohio St, CB
#25 Houston Texans- Deshaun
Watson, Clemson, QB
#26 Seattle Seahawks-
Cam Robinson, Alabama, OT
#27 Kansas City
Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech, QB
#28 Dallas Cowboys-
Charles Harris, Missouri, DE
#29 Green Bay
Packers- TJ Watt, Wisconsin, LB
#30 Pittsburgh
Steelers- Jabrill Peppers, Michigan, SS
#31 Atlanta Falcons-
Forrest Lamp, Western Kentucky, OG
#32 New Orleans
Saints- Kevin King, Washington, CB
