Hello and welcome to the eighth annual "Wind vs. Kiper Mock Draft Showdown!” After careful consideration, we’ve made the exciting decision to keep the tradition alive. When you think of the great sports rivalries your mind immediately goes to Ohio State vs. Michigan, Duke vs. North Carolina, Red Sox vs Yankees and we’re quickly adding ourselves to that list. Let’s look at how the competition has played out over the years:
Rules:
Mel Kiper tends to send out an updated mock a few hours before the draft with information sent to him by insider sources, so to keep an even playing field we’ll be using his most recent draft published. The way the scoring works is if you pick the correct player in the exact draft spot it’s worth .5 points. If you pick the correct team the player is drafted to it's an additional .5 points,so you can earn a total of 1 point per draft slot (max of 32 points). You can predict trades if you’d like. Last year, I set the record with 9 points- as that number indicates, mock drafts are incredibly difficult to predict!
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#1) Jacksonville Jaguars 1-15:
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Minshew Mania has officially come to an end in Jacksonville. Congratulations to the Jaguars for “winning” the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. If you’re unfamiliar with college football you may recognize him from his cameo as “Sunshine” in Remember the Titans. Only kidding… but the resemblance is uncanny. Lawrence is a dual-threat quarterback who possesses elite pocket-passing qualities and the athleticism to tuck the ball and run on any given play. The guy simply knows how to win football games as evidenced by his 86-4 record as a starterdating back to high school. Jags’ owner Shad Khan finally gets the franchise quarterback he’s been dreaming about since his arrival in 2012.
#2) NY Jets 2-14:
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
The Jets upset both the Rams and Browns in weeks 15 and 16 respectively and it ultimately cost them Trevor Lawrence. The team also traded Sam Darnold to Carolina which has left their depth chart to reflect only James Morgan & Mike White at the quarterback position. I don’t even think Jets’ new HC Robert Saleh could pick either one of them out of a lineup. It is a guarantee that the Jets will take a QB, and Zach Wilson is the right choice. Wilson’s player comparisons have widely ranged between Johnny Manziel & Patrick Mahomes- quite the range of outcomes- but it should excite the hell out of Jets’ fans. Wilson has incredible arm strength and an elite ability to create explosive plays both inside and outside of the pocket. This is the best thing to happen to this team since the firing of Adam Gase.
#3) San Francisco 6-10:
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St
This is where it gets tricky- this pick could shake up the entire first round. To say the 49ers wanted this third overall pick would be an understatement- check out the haul they sent Miami to acquire it:
You ONLY do this if you have a specific, franchise-altering quarterback in mind so it’s very likely their mind has been made up for weeks. Adam Schefter has reported that he will be “very surprised” if this pick isn’t Alabama QB Mac Jones and he’s currently the betting favorite to land in San Francisco. However, I can’t get myself to believe that. Jones and Garoppolo are too similar of quarterbacks and to give up that many draft picks for Jimmy G’s clone would be foolish. I will be “very surprised” if this pick isn’t Trey Lance or Justin Fields. Personally, I strongly believe it should be Fields. Fields is a dual-threat quarterback that has been often compared to Dak Prescott- he’s also a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense. For some reason- Fields is falling behind in the Vegas odds so somebody knows something that we don’t. I have faith that SF will make the right decision by passing on Jones and end up drafting Lance.
#4) New England Patriots 7-9:
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St
**Trade Alert!** Patriots trade up (15th, 46th, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd)
Bill Belichick and the Patriots haven’t had to worry about the quarterback position since 2001. Cam Newton stepped in as the replacement after the unexpected split between Brady and the Pats and it quickly served as a reminder that not all quarterbacks are created equally. Newton threw for only 2600 yards, 8 passing touchdowns (12 rushing) & 10 interceptions. Belichick doesn’t appear eager to hang up the headset any time soon so trading up to get another franchise QB in Justin Fields seems like the play.
#5) Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1:
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
The Bengals are in heaven with this pick as they have their choice between any of the top 3 players on their draft board: Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts or Penei Sewell. Burrow and Chase played together at LSU and were dominant together- AJ Green is gone and I can guarantee you that reuniting these two is a frequent conversation in the Cincinnati war room. The Bengals also have a glaring need at TE and Kyle Pitts is staring them directly in the face. However, common sense prevails, and the Bengals elect to protect their franchise quarterback who is still recovering from a week 11 ACL tear. The 6’6” 330 lbs Penei Sewell is an absolute star in the making and will protect Burrow’s blindside for the next decade.
#6) Miami Dolphins 10-6:
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
No TE has been drafted inside of the top 5 since 1972. However, two TEs have been selected at #6 overall (Kellen Winslow Jr and Vernon Davis) and Kyle Pitts will be the third name added to this list. Pitts is Darren Waller 2.0 and has potential to be the biggest game-changer in the 2021 NFL draft. He has exceptional speed and can make even the hardest contested catches. According to PFF, Pitts was the only player in college football who had at least 65 targets without a dropped pass. His impressive 2020 season saw him finish 10th in the Heisman Trophy voting- the highest any TE has finished in 43 years. The team is high on current TE Mike Gesicki, however co-oc George Godsey’s TE history suggests he’s okay with deploying a two TE set. In 2016, in Houston, Both C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin were both top four in targets. The Dolphins seem committed to giving Tua Tagovailoa the weapons to succeed and Pitts will be a nightmare match up for the entire league.
#7) Detroit Lions 5-11:
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Ja’Marr Chase to the Lions is a slam dunk. Detroit has had a rough off season: Stafford, Golladay and Jones Jr are gone, and they desperately need an exciting young playmaker to help give this franchise a new identity. Insert Ja’Marr Chase. His last college season looked like video game stats: 84 receptions, 1780 yards & 20 touchdowns- this kid is truly special, and the Lions waste no time on draft night locking up the best WR in the draft.
#8) Carolina Panthers 5-11:
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St
Sam Darnold has arrived and hopefully he left the ghosts in New York. I’ve seen a lot fans lobbying for a WR here to give Darnold an additional weapon but if you can’t make a supporting cast of DJ Moore, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey work then that’s on you. Carolina needs to address the defense- over the last two seasons they’ve finished 32nd and 18th in defensive efficiency. The Panthers can fill the void left by Luke Kuechly’s retirement by selecting the best LB in the draft.
#9) Denver Broncos 5-11:
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Are the Broncos ready to admit Drew Lock isn’t a franchise quarterback? I’m willing to bet the answer is yes. In 18 career games, Lock has thrown for 3900 yards, 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. It’s not terrible- but he’s also not living up to the expectations they envisioned when selecting him in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft. Jones had a phenomenal Junior season for Alabama last year throwing for 4500 yards, 41 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. The question being asked is how much of that success should be contributed to the elite Alabama offense as a whole? He’ll have some familiarity with Jerry Jeudy and an abundance of additional weapons in Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler and Noah Fant.
#10) Dallas Cowboys 6-10:
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Cowboys desperately want Kyle Pitts but know they won’t have a chance of landing him at #10. The last name may look familiar since his father was a pro bowl cornerback as well. Surtain finished with 38 consecutive starts at Alabama and showed an ability to be a true lock down cornerback with elite size, strength and durability. Experts around the league view his player comparison as Jalen Ramsey and the Cowboys are going to pounce on the opportunity to land a lockdown corner of this caliber.
#11) NY Giants 6-10:
Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
The Giants desperately needed WR help, so they went out and got Kenny Golladay. That move allows them to shift their attention to the offensive line and the Giants land a star in Rashawn Slater. A healthy Saquon Barkley combined with the additions of Golladay and Slater will make this offense significantly better. There’s no more excuses Daniel Jones..
#12) Philadelphia Eagles 4-11-1:
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The Eagles passed on Justin Jefferson last season in favor of Jalen Reagor, and something tells me that one has left a sour taste in their mouth. However, The Eagles have the opportunity to make things right by selecting Jaylen Waddle in this draft. Waddle displayed his game breaking speed at Alabama by scoring 11 of his 20 touchdowns from 50 yards or further- read that last sentence again. Hurts, Sanders, Reagor and Waddle will make for one of the fastest offenses in the league.
#13) LA Chargers 7-9:
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
The Chargers have found their franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert- now they need to protect him. They’ll be very tempted to draft DeVonta Smith with this pick and for good reason, but they’ll ultimately opt to protect their young star QB with the best available OL on the board.
#14) Baltimore Ravens 11-5:
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
**Trade Alert!** Ravens trade up (picks #27, #31 for #14, #90 in 3rd)
With DeVonta Smith still on the board the Ravens make the call and trade with the Minnesota Vikings. Baltimore drafts DeVonta Smith to give Lamar Jackson an elite WR to pair with Hollywood Brown, newly acquired Sammy Watkins and Mark Andrews. This offense is going to be elite once again. If both Waddle & Smith are off the board here Baltimore will stay put- but my mock has Smith falling to them here.
#15) Atlanta Falcons 4-12:
Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
**Trade Alert!** Patriots trade up (15th, 46th, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd)
The Falcons are having a fantastic night- they collected a haul of picks from NE and still landed the best edge rusher in the draft in Kwity Paye. Paye was a team captain with a phenomenal work ethic and is considered to be the most explosive and powerful edge rusher in the draft.
#16) Arizona Cardinals 8-8:
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The son of former Saint’s star WR Joe Horn, Jaycee Horn, certainly doesn’t lack confidence- he was asked if he views himself as the best cornerback in the draft and he took it one step further and declared himself the best defender in the draft, period. He was a three-year starter at South Carolina and possesses the size and length to be an effective defender in any type of coverage. Horn is versatile and plays confidently- he’ll be NFL ready from day one and can help fill the void left by Patrick Peterson.
#17) LV Raiders 8-8:
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
Trying to predict what Mark Davis, Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden are thinking on draft night has proven to be an impossible task. In 2019, they took Clelin Ferrell with the 4th overall pick- a player many teams had listed outside of their top 20. Last year, the Raiders selected Henry Ruggs III as the first WR off the board over the higher regarded prospects in CeeDee Lamb & Jerry Jeudy. This year, I’m trying to think like them and the name I keep landing on is Trevon Moehrig. Many mock drafts I’ve seen have Moehrig as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick- which means I should be right in line with the raider’s thought process here. Las Vegas needs a safety and Moehrig is the best safety in the draft- instead of moving down and picking him later in the 1st they’ll opt to take him here.
#18) Miami Dolphins 10-6:
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
The Dolphins landed Kyle Pitts earlier in the draft and now they need to address the defensive side of the ball. Originally the pick here was Christian Barmore but due to recent character concernshe seems to be slipping down draft boards. After losing LB Kyle Van Noy, the Dolphins fill the void by landing a dynamic playmaker in Owusu-Koramoah. Miami leaves the first night of the draft feeling confident in their two most recent additions on both sides of the football.
#19) Washington Football Team 7-9:
Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
The Washington Football Team was set to take Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah until he went off the board one pick before them. They opt to stick with the LB position and land the do-it-all playmaker in Zaven Collins. Collins was a quarterback and first team all-state defender in high school- injuries to the LB position forced Collins into the starting LB role where he exceled and earned All-American honors.
#20) Chicago Bears 8-8:
Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Kyle Fuller is gone and left behind is a glaring hole at the CB position for the Chicago Bears. When you play in a division with Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, you’d like to have some help in the secondary. Greg Newsome II has drawn comparisons to the lockdown cornerback that terrorized the NFC North for years in Darius Slay and the Bears get their guy. They’ll be tempted to go WR here to give Andy Dalton another weapon but ultimately decide to beef up their secondary.
#21) Indianapolis Colts 11-5:
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Another Colts’ quarterback has retired as Philip Rivers made the announcement that he was hanging up the cleats. The Colts brought in Carson Wentz and need to give him some weapons. They have a stacked offensive line and a dominant running game led by Jonathan Taylor. Michael Pittman Jr showed flashes that he can step up and be a playmaker for this offense. However, Ty Hilton’s performance and durability has started to decline, and Parris Campbell’s injury history is longer than Ryan Fitzpatrick’s job resume. Bateman was an absolute stud at the University of Minnesota- he possesses NFL size as an outside target and runs crisp routes. He’ll be able to step in as a playmaker from day one.
#22) Tennessee Titans 11-5:
Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
In free agency, the Titans lost Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith and even Adam Humphries if we want to count him. All that’s left for targets is AJ Brown and I can guarantee you that this pick will be a WR because... well, it has to be. Brown has been very vocal in his lobbying for Elijah Moore- both WRs played their college ball at Ole Miss. Since 2019 Ole Miss has produced both AJ Brown & DK Metcalf so the track record has been plentygood in recent memory.
#23) NY Jets 2-14:
Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn St
The Jets have the ability to go from Sam Darnold and Ty Johnson to Zach Wilson and Najee Harris.. and they pass on it to get some pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jets should draft Harrisand truly give these fans something to be excited about- but the reality is their new HC Robert Saleh will get some say in this selection and he’s a defensive minded coach (spent last four seasons as the 49ers defensive coordinator). He saw firsthand the importance of an effective pass rush. In addition, the Jets signed RB Tevin Coleman who Saleh is familiar with from their time together in San Francisco. Oweh is one of the most exciting and explosive edge rushers in this draft and Saleh gets his guy.
#24) Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4:
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
The Steelers parted ways with the often-injured James Conner, and it left a void in Pittsburgh’s backfield. This team is in win-now mode with Big Ben on the tail-end of his career. They draft the power running back in Najee Harris to fill the RB void they’ve desperately craved since the Le’Veon Bell era. Pittsburgh’s offense should be elite in 2021- Big Ben, Harris, Claypool, Dionate and JuJu can put up scary numbers.
#25) Jacksonville Jaguars 1-15:
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC
The Jaguars locked up their franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and now it’s time to protect him. I’ve seen a lot of mock drafts adding a wide receiver here but Chark, Jones Jr and Shenault are more than capable. It’s crucial that they keep Lawrence healthy and give him protection as he adapts to the NFL. Alijah Vera-Tucker is both an above average pass protector and a solid run blocker (which is obviously good for James Robinson) and landing him in #25 is a steal for the Jaguars. Watch out for the Jags offense- that feels weird to say.
#26) Cleveland Browns 11-5:
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
The Browns are not used to picking this low in the draft- in fact, since 2012, this is only their second time selecting outside of the top 15. The Cleveland offense was clicking last year led by a strong offensive line, a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield and arguably the best 1-2 running back punch in football. The Browns could use some help on the defensive side of the ball. Farley has tremendous ball skills and instincts that cannot be taught. However, he did move to the CB position during his sophomore year and opted of the 2020 season. As a result, his reps have been limited compared to other prospects which means there may be some patience required while he adjusts to the next level.
#27) Minnesota Vikings 7-9:
Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami
**Ravens Trade up (picks #27, #31 for #14, #90 in 3rd**)
The Vikings trade picks 14 and 90 and acquire an additional 1st round pick. The Vikes have two glaring holes at both offensive line and edge and don’t have a 2nd round pick which makes this trade necessary. Minnesota loves to wheel and deal on draft night and I think Vikings fans should be expecting some action unless Rashawn Slater slips to 14th. However, that’s unlikely to happen and Minnesota uses their first pick of the trade to select Gregory Rousseau- an edge rusher projected to excel within a 4-3 system. In 2019, Rousseau finished second in the country to only Chase Young with 15.5 sacks on his way to earning ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year. That was the last we’ve seen of him since he opted out of the 2020 season. This is a Mike Zimmer guy.
#28) New Orleans Saints 12-4:
Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami
Phillips slides to #29 simply due to his injury history and for good reason- he’s already had three reported concussions and sprained both ankles. In addition to the on-field injuries, Phillips was hit by a car while driving his moped and severely broke his wrist. The injury was so severe that he actually announced his retirement from football and missed the entire 2019 season. Phillips rehabbed and worked his way back onto the field and came out of retirement in 2020 where he had a lot of success. If Phillips had stayed healthy throughout his career, we would be talking about his name inside of the top 10, but his injury history has negatively impacted his draft stock for obvious reasons. Look for NO to try to trade up to secure one of the top CBs in the draft- former Saints’ star WR Joe Horn’s son Jaycee Horn could be very appealing.
#29) Green Bay Packers 13-3:
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
Aaron Rodgers has been begging for WR help since the beginning of time and his call will finally be answered. Davante Adams is arguably the best WR in the league and teams can’t stop him even when they know the ball is going to him- but can you imagine how dangerous this offense will be with another explosive playmaker? He’s shown flashes of Tyreek Hill and can be used in this offense similar to how SF uses Deebo Samuel. He returns kicks, punts, catches passes, runs jet sweeps- he’s one of the most versatile and explosive players in the draft and his 30.3% missed tackle rate was the highest figure in the SEC.
#30) Buffalo Bills 13-3:
Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
Josh Allen was an MVP caliber quarterback a season ago and he paired with newly acquired WR Stefon Diggs to form one of the best QB/WR duos in the league. The Bills played fantastic football on both sides of the ball throughout much of last season. I’ve seen fans lobbying for a running back but giving up on Zack Moss after one injury-plagued season would be silly and Buffalo knows that. As a result, the Bills address their need at Edge and lock up Ojulari. Ojulari was the team captain at Georgia and is widely regarded as a humble teammate with tremendous football character and IQ. He possesses a booming closing burst and makes quarterbacks pay when he gets close to them. His biggest problem is his consistency- "Ojulari is just too up and down but if he can find consistency, he’s going to be a problem. There are times when he looks like he has velcro on his jersey with the way blocks stick to him." -- Area scout for AFC team.
#31) Minnesota Vikings 7-9:
Teven Jenkins OT, Oklahoma St
**Ravens Trade up (picks #27, #31 for #14, #90 in 3rd**)
The Vikings addressed their defensive needs by selecting Edge rusher Gregory Rousseau at #27 so they immediately shift their attention to the offensive line and Teven Jenkins is the obvious choice. Jenkins is NFL ready and plays a tough and physical brand of football. The biggest knock on him is that his arms are too short for the tackle position but that’s just scouts and analysts nitpicking to find an opportunity. Jenkins will fill an immediate hole at tackle for the Vikings. Minnesota has invested heavily in Kirk Cousins and they need to do a better job giving him protection this season. Welcome to Minnesota, Mr, Jenkins.
#32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5:
Elijah Molden, DB, Washington
The defending champions really don’t have any glaring needs as they’ll be returning all 22 super Bowl starters. They could consider a QB to sit behind Brady and learn from the best of all time, but something tells me he is going to talk to the team into a different direction. The Bucs haven’t re-signed Antonio Brown,which leads some to believe they could target a WR, but I believe Tyler Johnson is more than capable of filling that role. The Bucs will fall in love with Molden’s instincts, pedigree and elite football character and let him compete for a starting role in the secondary. Even if he’s part-time player to begin they’re one of the few teams that have the luxury of affording that.
