Saturday, April 18, 2020

2020 NFL Mock Draft: Wind vs Kiper

Hello and welcome to the seventh annual "Wind vs. Kiper Jr." NFL mock draft showdown! In the 2014 and 2015 NFL draft, I accurately predicted more correct first round draft picks than one of the most popular ESPN draft analysts in the world- Mel Kiper Jr. However, my hot hand seemed to have fizzled out as I helplessly watched my hopes and dreams get crushed in 2016, 2017 & 2018. I was determined to bring this damn thing to year 7 and threw down a book-worthy 2019 performance which has brought us to this very moment- knotted up at 3 years a piece. Kiper has played hard to get throughout the entire duration of our series- but we all know he's actively refreshing the page waiting for my mock to drop. It's bitter sweet to announce that this will be the final year of a fantastic tradition. I am going to beat Mel Kiper Jr. in his own game and ride off into the sunset as the champion. 

I won't be going far though- especially during the current circumstances of the world. If you've enjoyed these write-ups and want to hear my fantasy football opinions on a regular basis, then I have excellent news for you. I'm extremely excited to announce that Jake Zieske, Tyler Hollerbach and I have officially started the "Fantasy Football Overtime Podcast." The first episode will drop on the morning of 4/27 and the topic will be centered around "Post Draft Fantasy Implications." Click on our twitter account below and give our podcast page a follow!


Podcast Details:

Fantasy Football OT 
Twitter: @FFOTPodcast
Website: http://ffotpodcast.com/

Rules: 
Lastly,we're going off of Kiper's latest mock draft that he posted today. He has a tendency to post one a few hours before the draft with information sent to him by his insider sources so we've always kept this on an even playing field. Alright, here we go! This is a no-trade first round mock draft. The way the scoring works is if you pick the correct player in the exact draft spot it’s worth .5 points. If you pick the correct team the player is drafted to it's an additional .5 points so you can earn a total of 1 point per draft slot (max of 32 points). 


#1) Bengals (needs-QB)
QB- Joe Burrow-LSU: The Bengals went 2-14 last season under first year head coach Zac Taylor and managed victories against only the New York Jets & Cleveland Browns. The team ranked 30th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency. However, if you’ve been paying attention to free agency, it’s easy to see the front office is determined to flip the script in 2020. Their aggressive offseason has included acquisitions of: Defensive Tackle D.J. Reader, Safety Vonn Bell, and Cornerbacks Trae Waynes & Mackensie Alexander. The Bengals have used their first round pick on an offensive lineman in two straight drafts and also brought in Xaiver Su’a Filo at guard. If healthy, last year’s porous line just turned into a competent one. The only glaring hole on this roster is at the quarterback position and fortunately they have the first overall pick in a draft that includes Joe Burrow. Burrow began his college career at Ohio State but was buried under the depth chart behind J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones, Braxton Miller & Dwayne Haskins. He transferred to LSU his Junior season and I think it’s safe to say he made the right decision. His senior year he threw for over 5,600 yards while becoming the first quarterback in NCAA history to throw for 60 touchdowns in a season. His remarkable season rightfully earned him the Heisman award. He posted a tweet last week saying he’s never had a losing sports season in his entire life-we’ll revisit that statement in December. The Red Rifle era has officially come to an end in Cincinnati.


#2) Redskins (needs-Edge)

Edge- Chase Young- Ohio State: His name is extremely fitting as he is young and will be chasing and terrorizing quarterbacks for the next decade plus. Chase Young is the best player in the draft and will be a star from day one. Despite missing two games his Junior season, he finished with a league leading 16.5 sacks, 21 tackles for loss and 7 forced fumbles. Young’s biggest impact on the field is one that doesn’t show up in the stats column- which is his ability to disrupt the backfield and blow up the play before it even gets started. Washington selects Chase Young without any hesitation.


#3) Lions (needs-CB, IDL, Edge)

CB- Jeff Okudah- Ohio State: I fully believe the Lions will trade this pick to the highest bidder between the Dolphins and the Chargers. Both teams desperately need their franchise quarterback and even though Tua would look good in a Lions jersey- Detroit is stuck with Stafford under contract through the 2022 season. The Lions lost Darius Slay in the offseason and brought in Desmond Trufant as his replacement. Trufant will turn 30 years old this season and is coming off a year in which he missed 7 games due to injury. Even if Trufant can find a way to stay healthy the Lions would still be thin at the cornerback position- and that’s a big “if” anyways.


As for Jeff Okudah and the Buckeyes, Ohio State just kind of seems to breed cornerbacks. In the last 20 years, 10 cornerbacks from OSU have been selected in the first round of the draft, which is twice as many as the next best school. Okudah is just the shiny new model and it won’t take very long for his name to get called on Thursday night. He’s an elite cornerback and will use his size, quickness and physicality to shut down even the best receivers at the next level.



#4) Giants (needs-OT, LB, Edge)

LB- Isaiah Simmons- Clemson: New York has “giant” holes on both sides of the football and that’s what makes this an interesting pick. To no surprise, a lot of experts are expecting the Giants to select the top offensive linemen to protect last year’s first rounder, quarterback, Daniel Jones. However, their secondary needs help all over the field and that’s exactly where you’ll be able to find Isaiah Simmons. Simmons is a hybrid between linebacker and safety and he’s easily the most versatile player in the draft. When you watch his tape, he’s all over the field and it reminds me a lot of Tyrann Mathieu. However, Simmons is faster, more explosive and 7 inches taller than the honeybadger.  He earned the Butkus award, given to the top linebacker in the country and was also named the ACC DPOY last year. 


#5) Dolphins (needs-QB, OT,IOL, S)

QB-Tua Tagovailoa- Alabama: Anybody taking the time to read my mock draft certainly knows about Tua’s season-ending hip dislocation injury suffered in November. A dislocated hip is an extremely scary injury and has ended numerous players’ careers- most notably, Bo Jackson. Tua’s recovery has been nothing short of spectacular as he’s been cleared by doctors and declared fully healthy heading into the draft. It is important to note that he’s also had surgery on both of his ankles earlier in his college career, so he absolutely has some longevity concerns. Tua also just scored a comically low “13” out of 50 on the Wonderlic test- it was the lowest score of any quarterback in the draft. However, let’s keep in mind that Lamar Jackson also scored a 13 and just earned himself the MVP honors a season ago so do we really even care about that? The answer is no we don’t. So why take Tagovailoa over the safer pick in Justin Herbert? It’s simple, when healthy, Tua is a far better quarterback.  Tua’s Sophomore season saw him torch the SEC to the tune of over 4,000 yards and 48 total touchdowns with a 7 TD/Int ratio. He was well on his way to shattering all of those numbers in his Junior season prior to the injury. The Dolphins have had one winning season since 2009 and Brian Flores knows it’s time to give this franchise something to get excited about. There is no better way to do that than selecting the most high risk/high reward player in the draft.


#6) Chargers (needs- QB, OT, CB)

QB-Justin Herbert, Oregon: The Chargers let Philip Rivers walk and will have a new quarterback under center for the first time since Drew Brees was on their squad all the way back in 2005. The current player slated to sling the rock is Tyrod Taylor and the team has done a pretty good job pretending like they’re okay with him being “the guy.” Spoiler alert: they’re not. Do you really expect GMs to come out and reveal their game plan to the public? There’s a reason why Taylor has been bounced around between four different organizations. The Chargers will absolutely take a quarterback in the first round and as I eluded to earlier- don’t be surprised if they trade up to ensure they get their guy.



#7) Panthers (needs-IDL, CB, LB, IOL)

DT-Derrick Brown-Auburn: The Panthers finished with the worst run defense in football in 2019. You know what doesn’t help the worst run defense in football? Losing Vernon Butler, Dontari Poe & Gerald McCoy in the offseason. You know what’s even worse than that? Your best defensive player in franchise history (Luke Kuechly) unexpectedly retiring at the young age of 28. The only defensive tackles on their roster is Kawaan Short and Woodrow Hamilton- the reason you haven’t heard of either one of them is because they’re both completely worthless as evidenced by their 4 combined tackles a season ago. Woodrow Hamilton sounds like he should be running for presidency in the 1800’s. The panthers don’t even really have a choice here- they have to draft the run stopping machine, Derrick Brown. Brown is a massive human being standing 6’5” 326 lbs and had an impressive workout at the combine. The Panthers have been linked to Brown since the combine where he showed good speed and athleticism for a tackle of that size- most importantly- it’s reported that the team loves his character off the field. This seems like a slam-dunk pick. 


#8) Cardinals (needs-OT, Edge, LB)
OT-Tristan Wirfs, Iowa: Arizona Just robbed Bill O’Brien with the Deandre Hopkins trade in the first degree.  This offense is about to put up some serious points in 2020 and Kyler Murray is my dark horse for MVP next season. My opinion on this topic should hold a little weight as I have drafted the NFL MVP two seasons in a row in my St. Cloud Fantasy Football Keeper League (Mahomes 18’) & (Lamar 19’).. I may have traded away Lamar after the 2nd week last season but that’s a topic for another day. The glaring hole on offense is the OL and they know the importance of protecting Murray. The Cardinals will absolutely draft an OL with this pick- deciding between Wirfs, Thomas & Wills is where it’ll get interesting and it could honestly be any of them. Wirfs seems like the most likely selection though. (Mekhi Becton was also in this conversation prior to failing a drug test last week-how dumb do you have to be to fail a drug test a week before the draft?)

#9) Jaguars (needs-IDL, CB, S)
CB-CJ Henderson-Florida: The Jaguars have completely cleaned house on defense which has included departures of star players: Jalen Ramsey, AJ Bouye & Calais Campbell. There’s also rumors swirling that Yannick Ngakoue and Leonard Fournette may be getting moved on draft night so that’s something to keep an eye on. 

Jacksonville desperately needs to add some playmakers in the secondary and CJ Henderson is a great place to start. With Okudah off the board he’s clearly the best CB available and the Jags bite. Henderson is extremely physical and is phenomenal in coverage- he has potential to step in and become a true shutdown cornerback in the early stages of his career. The major knock on him is his run stopping abilities- some teams believe that he has tendencies to be “afraid” to get dirty and make a tackle. Evidence that may support this claim is that Henderson never exceeded 26 tackles in a season in his college career. However, the Jaguars say to hell with tackling and jump at the opportunity to lock up a true shutdown cornerback.

#10 Browns (needs-OT,S,LB)
OT-Andrew Thomas-Georgia Cleveland likes to run the football- you would too if you had Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield.. and Baker Mayfield as your quarterback. With that being said, the Browns select the best run blocker in the draft in Andrew Thomas. Thomas is a devastating run blocker with a massive frame and athleticism to handle the best edge rushers in the NFL. The biggest knock on him is that when he gets beat, he doesn’t have the recovery speed to make up for it which at times can lead to the QBs life almost being ended right there on the field.  The Browns will be even more reliant on the run game in 2020 and securing Thomas’ services is a step toward a more successful run game.

#11) Jets (needs- OT, EDGE, WR, IOL)
OT- Jedrick Wills- Alabama

#12) Raiders (needs- WR, CB)     
WR-CeeDee Lamb- Oklahoma: The Raiders are known for making unique picks and if you need proof of that look no further than their selection of Clelin Ferrell with the fourth overall pick a year ago. However, this season, the Las Vegas Raiders (wow that’s weird to say) have two glaring needs at WR & CB.. they also just so happen to have two first round picks. I am confident that the Raiders stick to the script and select CeeDee Lamb, who is highly regarded by experts as the top WR in the draft. The team has brought in Marcus Mariota to compete with Derek Carr, but they’re fully expected to stick with their guy. Speaking of Derek Carr, here’s a fun fact- he just finished with the 2nd most losses by a quarterback through their first 6 seasons in NFL history with (55). Can you guess the only quarterback with more? His older brother David Carr (56).. you can’t make this stuff up folks. Derek isn’t even that bad of a quarterback- but the numbers don’t lie. Waller was a pleasant surprise last season, but this franchise needs to get some additional weapons if they want Carr to start winning some ball games. The YAC machine has drawn comparisons to DeAndre Hopkins & Davante Adams and Las Vegas is going to find out if he can live up to the hype.

#13) 49ers (needs-CB, WR, IOL, IDL)
WR-Jerry Jeudy-Alabama

#14) Buccaneers (needs-OT, RB)
OT-Mekhi Becton, Louisville

#15) Broncos (needs-WR, CB, OT)    
WR-Henry Ruggs III-Alabama

#16) Falcons (needs-CB, IDL, EDGE, RB)
Edge-K’Lavon Chaisson-LSU

#17) Cowboys (needs-CB, EDGE, S, IOL)
S-Xavier McKinney-Alabama

#18) Dolphins (needs-QB, OT, IOL, S)
OL-Josh Jones-Houston

#19) Raiders (needs-WR, CB)
CB-AJ Terrell- Clemson: Now that the Raiders got their WR at #12- it’s time to address their biggest opportunity on the defensive side of the ball. Terrell has been rock solid for Clemson over his three-year career. Unfortunately for him, he's been on the receiving end of a lot of criticism for his play in the Championship game against LSU. He repeatedly got torched by star receiver Ja'Marr Chase- Chase went for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns going up against Terrell. The thing is- nobody was able to stop Chase last season- how about this for a sophomore season: Ja'Marr finished the year with 84 receptions, 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. So, excuse me if I'm not ready to let one game define his career when he's been a proven defender throughout his career. Also, it's important to note Mayock & Gruden's fascination with Clemson players- they spoke about it prior to last year’s draft and then followed it up by drafting three players from the school. Terrell is not the best cornerback available- but I am oddly confident that the Raiders select AJ Terrell. 


#20) Jaguars (needs-IDL, CB, S)     
DT-Javon Kinlaw-South Carolina

#21) Eagles (needs-WR, LB, CB)    
WR-Justin Jefferson-LSU

#22) Vikings (needs-CB, WR, EDGE, OL)
CB-Jeff Gladney-TCU
The Vikings have major holes to fill at CB, WR, OL, & DL and I think the organization needs to ask themselves an honest question and answer it truthfully- “Are we in win-now or rebuild mode?” The front office has publicly stated that they consider themselves contenders and the two-year contract extension for Kirk Cousins would certainly support that. However, everything else they’ve done in the offseason indicates a rebuild. Sure, they brought in DL Michael Pierce, but they’ve lost Stefon Diggs, Josh Klein, Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen, Stephen Weatherly, Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Jayron Kearse & Andrew Sendejo- that is not your typical offseason activity for a team trying to win the Super Bowl.

I have done my homework on the Vikings and I can confidently say they’re going to be active on draft night. I’d be shocked if they keep both of their first-round picks. In fact, don’t be surprised if they trade both of them- one to move up in the draft and one to fall back out of the first to acquire additional mid-round picks. Slick Rick loves to wheel and deal and there are numerous holes on the roster that need to be addressed so reaching for a player to fill a need is not the answer. While many sources have deemed it false- we’ve all heard the rumors surrounding OBJ and Trent Williams. It’ll be interesting to see if the Vikings make any form of trade offers involving Anthony Harris on draft night.

I’ve heard a lot of Minnesota fans expecting/hoping the team drafts a WR in the 1st round and I understand the reasoning behind that- however, that is a much riskier selection than you might think. Let these next two paragraphs serve as a warning.

Since 2016, here is a list of all WR’s selected in the 1st round: Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson & last but certainly not least, Laquon Treadwell. Aside from maybe Brown, Moore, Ridley and Fuller it’s safe to say the rest of them have been busts to this point. Serious question- would you trade pick #22 on draft day for any of those players listed above? I would love to hear Vikes’s fans opinion on this question.

Since 2016, here is a list of WR’s drafted in rounds 2-5: Michael Thomas, JuJu, Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton, Cooper Kupp. Even their very own Stefon Diggs if we want to go back to 2015 and let’s not forget that Thielen wasn’t even drafted. Obviously, there are a lot of busts mixed in with this group that I didn’t include- So just to clarify, I’m not saying that drafting a WR in the 1st round equates to an automatic bust or that drafting one in rounds 2-5 is going to be an automatic slam-dunk. I am simply showcasing that in recent history- 1st round WRs have rarely returned the value of their price tag. My opinion is it would be wise to wait for the better value at the position on day 2.

The Vikings could potentially go with an EDGE rusher here, but I don’t like the pick. Even though Griffen is gone- those who follow the Vikings closely are optimistic about Ifeadi Odenigbo stepping into his place. Odenigbo had 7 sacks and 18 pressures in only 348 snaps a season ago. It’s also important to note that the Vikings haven’t selected a defensive end in the first two rounds of a draft since Kenechi Udeze & Erasmus James in back to back seasons in 2004-2005. Neither one of those worked out. 

All-in-all, this position is a tricky one and that’s why I’m confident the Vikings will trade at least one of them. There’s no clear option left on the board and they still have multiple holes to address. While it’s unlikely, it’s also not entirely out of the question to think that they could consider cornerbacks with both picks. Look at the current state of the secondary and think about what that must be doing to Zimmer. However, I think the most likely option in a no-trade mock draft is to draft a CB at #22 and then reach on an OL at #25. Don’t be surprised if that “reach” is Isaiah Wilson. The man is absolutely massive even for offensive lineman standards coming in at 6’6” weighing 350 lbs. He dominated in the run game and we all know Kubiak is determined to run Cook & Mattison into the ground. Wilson has been predicted to go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round and that’s why this pick would be a reach if you want to ensure you get him.

Finally, we can get to the #22 pick. The Vikings pass on Kristian Fulton and select CB Jeff Gladney out of TCU. With this pick the Vikes lock up a guy who is everything Zimmer wants in a CB. He's a solid cover corner with great speed, technique and has the recovery skills to make plays that nobody expects him to make. Zimmer values players with high football IQ above all the other intangibles and Gladney certainly checks the box. Gladney also plays extremely physical and loves to get dirty- his aggressive style will quickly turn him into a fan favorite. Gladney is a guy that can step in and produce from day one and that's exactly what the Vikings need if they're serious about contending this year.

#23) Patriots (needs-QB, WR, EDGE, IOL)    
QB- Jordan Love-Utah State

#24) Saints (needs-LB, CB, WR)
LB- Kenneth Murray-Oklahoma

#25) Vikings (needs-CB, WR, EDGE, OL)
OL-Isaiah Wilson- Georgia

#26) Dolphins (needs-QB, OT, IOL, S, RB)
RB- Jonathan Taylor- Wisconsin

#27) Seahawks (needs-EDGE, IOL, OT)     
EDGE-Yetur Gross-Matos-Penn State

#28) Ravens (needs-LB, IOL)     
LB-Patrick Queen-LSU

#29) Titans (needs-EDGE, IDL, OT, CB)    
CB-Kristian Fulton-LSU

#30) Packers (needs-WR, TE, OL)     
WR-Jalen Reagor-TCU: Green Bay fans have been asking for a receiving threat outside of Davante Adams for years and they finally get it. Reagor is a perfect fit in this offense- he’s electric with the ball in his hands and can be used in a utility role similar to how Kansas City uses Tyreek Hill. Reagor has blazing speed and when he gets into open space he’s gone. He is a deep ball threat this team has been missing and will give Rodgers the ability to stretch the field. Reagor also excels in special teams and will immediately step in as the new kick/punt returner. When I watch his tape I see Tyreek Hill.. as a Vikings fan, I’m praying I get this one wrong. 

#31) 49ers (needs-CB, WR, IOL, IDL) 
DL-Ross Blacklock-TCU

#32) Chiefs (needs-CB, IOL, RB)    
CB-Trevon Diggs-Alabama


Players on the bubble (all players I wouldn’t be surprised to see go in the first): 
Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn
Cesar Ruiz, OL, Michigan
Austin Jackson, OL, USC
Grant Delpit, S, LSU
Terrell Lewis EDGE, Alabama
D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia
AJ Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa
Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
Zach Baun, LB, Wisconsin
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, ASU
Neville Gallimore, DL, Oklahoma
Laviska Shenault Jr, WR, Colorado
























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