Hello and welcome to the ninth annual "Wind vs. Kiper Showdown!” Last year, my two-year win streak came to a screeching halt, as I helplessly watched Mel Kiper Jr. knot the series at 4 years a piece. I’ve gone back to the drawing board and put in more research than ever and I’m confident that I’ll get back on track in 2022. Okay, maybe confident isn’t the right word- have you seen this draft class!? This is shaping up to be the most unpredictable NFL draft in recent memory. We are one day out from the draft and experts legitimately cannot agree on who will be the first player off the board.
One thing is for certain, I want it more than Kiper this year! When you think of the great sports’ rivalries your mind immediately jumps to Ohio State vs. Michigan, Duke vs. North Carolina, Red Sox vs Yankees and we’re quickly adding ourselves to that list. Maybe this will even be the year he acknowledges our competition? Let’s look at how the competition has played out over the years:
Rules:
Kiper tends to send out an updated mock a few hours before the draft with information sent to him by insider sources, so to keep an even playing field we’ll be using his most recent draft published. The way the scoring works is simple- if you pick the correct player in the exact draft spot it’s worth .5 points. If you pick the correct team the player is drafted to it's an additional .5 points, so you can earn a total of 1 point per draft slot (max of 32 points). The all-time scoring record for a single season between Kiper and I was set in the 2020 draft when I accurately scored 9 points- as that number indicates, mock drafts are incredibly difficult to predict and this year you can expect even more turbulence than normal.
If you enjoy this type of content please give me a follow on twitter:
Twitter: @M_Wind
Twitter: @FFOTPodcast
Website: http://ffotpodcast.com/
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
Aside from 2018, Jacksonville has had a top-10 pick in every NFL draft since 2007. That tells us that this franchise has a lot of work to do. This team desperately needs an edge rusher to pair with Josh Allen- the organization also needs a significant culture change after a disastrous season “led” by Urban Meyer. It just so happens that the best player in the draft class fills both of those needs. Hutchinson was a two-time team captain at Michigan and is an elite talent as evidenced by his 14 sacks a season ago. That production on the field resulted in him finishing as the runner-up for the Heisman award. Here’s where things get tricky- per league circles and NFL insiders; there is belief that the GM Trent Baalke, HC Doug Pederson and owner Shad Khan all have a different preference for the 1st overall selection. Khan has been vocal about his support for Hutchinson and as the owner, I’m expecting him to go get his guy.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
Walker has seen his draft stock skyrocket over the last year- not only from his performance on the field, but scouts certainly took notice of what he was able to do at the combine and pro day. The 6-foot-5, 270 lb DE lit up the combine with a blazing 4.51 forty-yard dash which was the third fastest time for a defensive end this year. Walker might not be as polished as Hutchinson, but he’s an athletic freak and could have a higher ceiling in the NFL if the team can help him reach his full potential. Last year, only two teams in the NFL finished with fewer sacks than the Detroit Lions. Bringing in an explosive pass rusher that can get to the quarterback is the #1 priority for this team and they address it with the second overall pick in the draft. Some mock drafts have the Lions selecting Liberty QB Malik Willis here- I think it’s much more likely that Detroit addresses the QB position later in the round.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
The Texans seem committed to giving QB Davis Mills control of the offense in 2022 and I agree with the decision. A majority of the experts believe Mills would be the top quarterback in this draft class had he come out this year. If Houston is going to give Mills a legitimate opportunity to succeed they’re going to need to protect him and Ekwonu does just that. Ekwonu is a mauler in the run game and has the versatility to play inside or out- that versatility pushes him ahead of OL Evan Neal on draft night.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Sauce Gardner is my favorite player in the NFL Draft and the Jet’s land a true shutdown corner with the 4th overall pick. He played three seasons at Cincinnati and never allowed a touchdown in his entire career- that is not a typo. He also held every WR he faced to under 13 yards a season ago and that includes one of the top WRs in this class in Alabama’s Jameson Williams. In a division that already consists of Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle and newly acquired Tyreek Hill- you need a guy that can help shut them down. The sauce is dripping in swagger.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
The Giants brought in a new head coach in Brian Daboll and he immediately committed to Daniel Jones as their quarterback for the 2022 season. This offense averaged only 15.2 points per game a season ago which was the second lowest total of any team in football. To be fair, this team dealt with a historic amount of injuries on their offense and will be better this year by default. However, this team needs to protect Daniel Jones and open up some running lanes for a healthy Saquon Barkley and the addition of the 6’7” 350lb Neal does exactly that.
This is a very interesting pick because the Panthers don’t select again until the 4th round. Sam Darnold was a failed experiment and if they want a new quarterback- this is their chance. Do they feel confident enough in Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett? Maybe- but Head Coach Matt Rhule’s seat is currently engulfed in flames and he cannot afford a project QB. Something tells me he’ll be doing everything he can to persuade the team to move forward in a different direction. Those persuasion skills must be pretty good too because he recently fleeced Panthers’ owner David Tepper into an unwarranted 7-year $62M contact.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon
The Giants have recently gone on record becoming the latest team to question Kayvon Thibodeaux’s character and commitment to the game of football. A couple red flags that teams have recently called out was his decision to sit out drills at the combine due to it being a “long day.” Not exactly what NFL decision-makers want to hear from a player who is already viewed to have work ethic concerns. In a recent interview he also compared himself to Jadeveon Clowney, who is widely regarded as an underachieving pass-rusher in his own right. Let’s give Thibodeaux credit where credit is due though- he’s an absolute beast on the field. He recorded 35.5 tackles for loss and 19 sacks in 30 games at Oregon. If the Giants can keep him focused and get the full potential out of him we could be looking at the steal of the draft.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio St
I’ll bet money that Garrett Wilson is the first wide-receiver off the board- any takers? No Calvin Ridley, put your hand down. Ridley’s gambling suspension will last all of 2022 and his future with the team is very much in jeopardy. Atlanta drafted a generational TE in Kyle Pitts with their first round pick a season ago and Wilson will help ease the defensive attention for him. They desperately need a quarterback and could look at Malik Willis here- but the thought of pairing Pitts with Wilson for the next decade will be too appealing.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Malik Willis has a cannon for an arm and possesses elite rushing ability as evidenced by his 27 rushing touchdowns in 23 games at Liberty. The NFL is moving more toward the konami (dual threat) quarterbacks with every passing day, so it comes as no surprise that Willis’ draft stock has skyrocketed more than any other player in the draft in recent months. While the upside is tremendous- he also comes with as much risk as any other player that’ll be drafted in the first round. Liberty certainly didn’t play the cream of the crop in terms of competition- so his 12 interceptions and 51 sacks last season is definitely concerning.That rushing upside is going to be too attractive to pass on after losing Russell Wilson.
Drake London, WR, USC
When I watch Drake London’s film I see a combination of Mike Evans and Kenny Golladay and I know that’s not a hot take as many experts have said the same thing. His body type is similar to both as he stands 6-foot-5, 220 lbs. London is a physical receiver and embraces contact as evidenced by his incredibly impressive 68% contested-catch rate. London finished as a 2021 Biletnikoff Award finalist which is given to the best WR in college football despite only playing 8 games due to an ankle injury. In a shortened season, he posted 88 receptions for over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. The Jets give Zach Wilson his redzone target and lock up arguably the best WR in the class.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
The Kwesi Adofo-Mensah/Kevin O’Connell era is officially underway and things could not have gotten off to a better start as Derek Stingley Jr falls into their lap. In 2019, as a true freshman, Stingley led the SEC with 6 interceptions. Injuries have limited the incredibly talented cornerback to only ten games over his previous two seasons, but his 4.37 forty-yard dash proved he has recaptured his pre-injury form. The Vikings have a glaring need at the CB position, but not for lack of trying- in fact, they’ve used 3 of their last 7 first round draft picks on cornerbacks with little to show for it. Stingley is different though- this kid is special. Stingley is a perfect fit in Minnesota as fellow LSU CB Patrick Peterson is here to mentor him. Another important factor to pay attention to is the signing of Daronte Jones- Minnesota’s new defensive backs coach. Jones was the defensive coordinator at LSU a season ago and cannot stop raving about Stingley.
Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
FINALLY. Since 1988, the Green Bay Packers have drafted a WR in the first round only once (Javon Walker 2002). The team has done a phenomenal job landing elite WRs in round 2: Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings to name a few. However, Davante Adams skipped town and took his talents to Vegas. Aaron Rodgers turns 39 years old this season and is coming off back-to-back MVP seasons. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the league and this team will reward him by using one of their first round picks on arguably the most polished WR in the draft. Olave is an experienced, intelligent athletic receiver who I consider to be the best route runner in the class.
25. Buffalo Bills: CB/DT/OT/RB
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
Kenny Pickett QB, Pittsburgh
Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia
The Packers addressed their glaring hole at the WR position with their first draft pick and now decide to turn their attention back over to the defensive side of the ball. This defensive unit was forced to watch Za’Darius Smith leave for their NFC North rivals and waste no time replacing him with George Karlaftis. Karlaftis is a powerful, relentless edge rusher that will put 100% effort in on every play. Last year he was awarded the AP third-team All-American and first-team all-conference accolades on his way to being named a Ted Hendricks’ finalist- an award given to the nation’s top defensive end. Olave and Karlaftis would be a dream scenario for Packer fans.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Detroit addressed their DE concerns earlier in the draft and now they get their potential franchise quarterback. I’ve seen a lot of mock drafts where Detroit selects a quarterback at pick #34 but I can’t understand the reasoning behind that. Quarterback is the most important position on the field and selecting Howell in the first round allows the team to have a 5th-year option with his contract. Jared Goff is under contract through 2024 but the team has a potential buy-out option in 2023- if they cut Goff by June 1, 2023 they’d clear $20.65M in cap space. It would make a lot of sense to draft Howell and let him sit a full year before handing over the keys in the Motor city.
No comments:
Post a Comment